Respiratory Viruses: Find Out How Dangerous Covid, Flu, And RSV Can Collide This Winter
As the days get shorter and the northern hemisphere gets colder, health officials are warning of a perfect storm of winter respiratory infections.
Outbreaks of seasonal diseases such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) have put pressure on the already overstretched NHS. If this epidemic collides with a large wave of COVID, we could face a public health disaster.
Some call this threat "tripleness".
But how can we wait for winter? To try to answer this question, we can look at the latest and current trends in the most common winter infections in the UK.
1. COVID-19
We should begin with the accessible, SARS-CoV-2 (the infection that causes Coronavirus). The UK has experienced several waves of COVID so far, accompanied by behavioral changes, emerging options, and reduced immunity.
Unlike last winter's large outbreak, the new wave is smaller. Despite initial concerns about a significant increase this season, the number of COVID-19 cases is now decreasing. But the pandemic is far from over, and it's unclear what will happen next.
So far, there is mixed evidence that COVID is worse in cold weather. But in the winter months, people stay indoors more and reduce ventilation, giving the virus more opportunities to spread.
In an optimistic scenario, since COVID is 'endemic', a small-scale virus may persist over the winter.
The previous wave of COVID has been driven by single dominant options with alpha and delta in 2020-21 and micron in 2021-22. This time, the "generation" of omicron multiplied around the world, and instead of the current spread, it was caused by a mixture of variants that spread in different countries at different times.
But if a transmissible variant emerges this winter, it could lead to another wave of infections.
Influenza
Seasonal influenza is a respiratory infection caused by four types of virus, two of which (A and B) are common and can cause severe illness, hospitalization, and death, especially in vulnerable people.
Influenza is profoundly occasional in environments like the UK, halfway on the grounds that individuals stay more time inside. The virus itself seems to prefer low temperatures and low humidity. Unlike COVID, factors such as a weakened immune system and the evolution of the influenza virus lead to persistent outbreaks.
Influenza season usually starts in November, and cases increase from December to March. In some years, the disease is as bad as it was in the UK in 2018.
The flu has responded in a similar way to COVID to non-medical measures such as lockdown restrictions and wearing masks. In the winter of 2020-21, the number of cases is very low. The lower season returns later in the year but is still limited.
There are concerns that long periods of exposure to the flu in our bodies could create an 'immunity gap' that makes us more vulnerable this year.
Australia saw its worst seasonal flu outbreak in five years last winter, coinciding with a major surge in COVID. Although it is too early to see what the 2022-23 season will bring to the Northern Hemisphere, the current virus in the UK is early and large compared to the pre-pandemic years.
3. RSV
RSV is a winter virus that usually causes coughs and colds, but can sometimes cause serious infections such as bronchiolitis and pneumonia.
In the pre-pandemic years, it followed a seasonal pattern, often occurring at the beginning of winter. After a hiatus in 2020-21, more cases were recorded in the summer of 2021. This unusual situation is associated with a loss of immunity.
Seasonal patterns seem to be returning, but many people are in the hospital this fall.
4. common cold virus
The normal virus is brought about by different microorganisms, including rhinoviruses, enteroviruses, and other Corvids.
Like this season's virus, the best Covid breakout generally happens in November, with a top among January and Walk. Rhinoviruses and enteroviruses top in pre-winter as opposed to winter.
The 2021-22 rhinovirus season is similar to pre-pandemic trends, but we are seeing higher numbers this year. Flu is usually mild and most people recover quickly, but severe cases in vulnerable people can put pressure on hospitals.
Take care of yourself
This winter, the UK will face high pressure from respiratory viruses. The seasonal disease is higher due to lack of exposure during pregnancy. In addition, some studies have shown that COVID infection can affect a person's immune system and increase the risk of infection with other viruses.
To reduce the spread of respiratory viruses, we can continue to implement measures such as ventilation, wearing a mask, and washing hands.
We can also strengthen the immune system by eating right and exercising. While we don't have a vaccine for RSV or the common cold, COVID and flu shots are important tools to prevent serious illness this winter.
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