SHOULD INDIA BE WORRIED ABOUT THE FOURTH WAVE OF CORONAVIRUS?

 Should India be worried about the fourth wave of coronavirus?

In mid-September 2012, there were about 700 suspected cases globally. A week later, doctors working in Saudi Arabia reported a cluster of 28 deaths and 132 cases.

 Now, in July 2014, another 58 deaths and 279 new cases have been reported from various countries in the Middle East. The British newspaper The Guardian, in its report in July 2014, said the number of cases had increased to 79 and the number of deaths had risen to 65 since the last update. It said that the fourth wave of coronavirus (MERS) in the Middle East was a global threat and that the Indian authorities had been notified.

On May 13, 2015, the World Health Organization declared the fourth wave of MERS in the Middle East to be over and said it had seen a decline in new cases since mid-April 2014. In this phase, the World Health Organization did not take any action. This is the fifth time that MERS has emerged from the Middle East since 2011. In 2011, the Indian government warned people from traveling to Saudi Arabia because of outbreaks of MERS. In 2012, it was a different virus. The difference this time is that MERS is a different disease. But should India be worried?

The fourth wave of MERS started in September 2012 in the Saudi Arabian port city of Jeddah, after a new healthcare worker there with whom a Saudi citizen contracted the disease tested positive for a coronavirus. In late 2012, the World Health Organisation alerted people that the new coronavirus was not only among humans but among birds as well. From the current situation, the fourth wave has also moved into poultry. The second wave of MERS appeared in mid-2013.

The first two waves of MERS in humans involved two distinct viruses. However, in the third wave in late 2013, there was a fourth, third and fourth wave of MERS, and it was also spread from one animal to another. This was not done in a deliberate way but was pure because of the speed of evolution of coronavirus.

The fourth wave could have started in India, or it could be just that India did not notice the initial cases. But it is evident that the MERS wave is now hitting India as well. From mid-April 2014, MERS has been reported in India as well. Earlier, India was not considered among countries that should be alerted because of common factors between India and South Asia (SSA) for any outbreak of a deadly disease. MERS belongs to the same family as SARS, also known as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or severe flu. However, SARS is spread from animal to human, which is not the case for MERS.

All MERS cases to date have been the fourth wave, which started in mid-2013. And they are now hitting India too. A surge in India has taken place because of the quick spread from the fourth wave of MERS in the Middle East. It has led the Indian authorities to be alert. A series of two WHO reports, also published in July 2014, said that the MERS fourth wave has affected over 100 countries worldwide, and the fourth wave is getting wider in India.

So, should India be worried about the fourth wave of MERS? Should India be prepared to face an outbreak of a new, deadly disease? Should India be worried about the growing rate of MERS cases that are coming from the Middle East? Yes, India should be worried. India is taking care of its population. Its resources have been increased. It is doing its homework, which should be evaluated by the world community.

I believe that the Indian authorities have been worried about the possibility of an outbreak of a deadly disease. So, it should have been told about the MERS fourth wave as early as possible, and the consequences of ignoring such an outbreak should have been kept in mind by the Indian authorities. The fourth wave of MERS is much different than the earlier waves. Unlike the first, second, and third waves, the fourth wave of MERS did not start in humans. This is why it is called a fourth wave.

India and SSA do have certain common factors like people working in the healthcare industry, common diseases, and common carriers for the fourth wave of MERS. But this is not only the case in India but across SSA.

In India, at least 10,000 doctors are working in different healthcare sectors, and not only them. Thousands of nurses also work in these sectors. The air, soil, and water of India are heavily polluted with pesticides, fertilizers, and other poisons. A big portion of the population eats such poisonous food. Of course, it should not be in an abundance, but consumption is increasing every day. These poisons are getting into the body of those consuming them. Similarly, people in rural areas like India consume pesticides and fertilizers.

It is, therefore, not a surprise that people from SSA should also be worried about the fourth wave of MERS in their country too.

The reason for the increased rate of MERS cases in India has two main causes. First, the fourth wave of MERS is spread among animals, and this is the reason behind this massive outbreak. And second, the fourth wave of MERS is occurring in SSA now, which has a vast number of human beings who are working in animal farms, including India. In SSA, animals that humans need are being used as food. For example, in India, a large amount of dairy is fed to animals for their production.

From mid-July 2014, the total number of reported cases of MERS has crossed 811. This is the fourth wave of MERS, which started in the Middle East. With such a huge amount of cases, one should be worried, but that is not the case in India. All these cases are reported from people who worked in MERS-related work. But the number of deaths from MERS is still small.

In mid-June, the WHO reported around one death from MERS in India. In mid-July, it said about three deaths, out of which one was a healthcare worker who worked in a hospital. A report on June 16 said that a hospital employee had died from MERS.

In mid-July, India’s health ministry had said in a press release that only one person has died of MERS since April 2014. But in mid-July, a hospital employee in India had died. In mid-August, a healthcare worker had died. That is why I call this the fourth wave of MERS in India.

A report on Aug. 17 said that a doctor in India had died from MERS. This doctor worked in a hospital.

It is surprising that even though the fourth wave of MERS started in SSA in mid-June, the cases are not alarming in India because the hospital that is getting affected is not a big one. It is a small hospital, where almost half of the patients have come from other hospitals in India and the region. The MERS cases from SSA are spreading to those who had come in touch with the first, second, and third waves of MERS.

The number of deaths and number of cases has been rising steadily since July 2013. This is also a scary figure. These numbers should worry the government in India, but they are not.

I think this is because the government in India is not worried about this